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Integrated Multi-Model Risk Assessment of an Aging Gas Pipeline Using Fuzzy AHP and 3D Uncertainty Matrix
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Arman Gholinezhad Paji *   , Ali Borozgi Amiri , Reza Tavakkoli Moghaddam |
| Ph.D. student of Industrial Engineering, Kish International Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran , Arman.gholinezhad@ut.ac.ir |
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Abstract: (182 Views) |
The expansion of gas transmission lines in Iran involves numerous risks, requiring regular assessments to ensure safe and efficient transport. This study examines six kilometers of Iran’s oldest gas pipeline, located in Tonekabon, a densely populated and touristic city. The pipeline was divided into six zones, considering pipeline class, population density, and intersections. In each zone, three events—leakage, rupture, and explosion—were assessed using four methods: simple matrix, weighted matrix, fuzzy weighted matrix, and a 3D uncertainty-based matrix. Four experts evaluated the probability and severity of consequences, categorized as technical, safety, environmental, and cost impacts. The consequences enabled risk calculation across all categories. Standard deviation was used to compute a three-dimensional uncertainty-based risk, incorporating uncertainty in both probability and consequence estimation. Risk management levels were then adjusted accordingly. Chang’s fuzzy AHP method and Mamdani’s fuzzy logic in MATLAB were applied to handle inherent uncertainties. Results showed discrepancies between simple and fuzzy matrices due to the exclusion of cost impacts, given the state-owned nature of the company. The 3D matrix further indicated that most risk cells require only preliminary review, attributed to the company’s regular inspections and access to reliable data.
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| Keywords: fuzzy risk assessment, fuzzy risk matrix, gas transmission lines, fuzzy hierarchical analysis |
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Full-Text [PDF 1136 kb]
(101 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Original |
Subject:
Other
Received: 2024/08/11 | Accepted: 2024/10/24 | Published: 2024/10/24
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